The current water flow situation indicates a grim scenario for Kharif crop sowing in Sindh, where the cultivation season begins early. In its meeting last week of March, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) concluded that the indications are of drought conditions. There are potential fears that the situation may be aggravated in terms of shortage during peak Kharif if storage in Tarbela remains insufficient and rains don’t rescue farmers.
Flows at rim stations indicate an unprecedented shortage in the system at the beginning of summer. From the lower riparian’s viewpoint, flows were inadequate. All canals of Guddu Barrage remain closed due to annual maintenance. Water discharges are released downstream for Sukkur Barrage, which feeds almost 60-70pc farmland in upper and lower Sindh parts on the left and right banks of the Indus.
Irsa’s March 27 official statement is self-explanatory: the Irsa Advisory Committee had approved water availability only for April with a 43pc system shortfall. The committee decided, though unusually, to provide “drinking supplies” for April and review the situation again next month. It further said that “discharges at rim stations stood at a 51pc shortfall and went beyond 60pc while reaching provincial canal heads.”
Farmers in Sindh go for early Kharif sowing, especially of cotton in lower Sindh, soon after the Rabi season ends. But they were now waiting for water flows. April 8’s inflow figures of major reservoirs, including Mangla and Tarbela, as per Irsa, highlight a disturbing trend compared with last year’s flows and those recorded further in the past.
As Punjab plans on sowing 1m acres of cotton in April, Sindh struggles to achieve even 10pc of its target due to water shortages
Discharges recorded at four rim stations showed a cumulative discharge of 76,000 cusecs on April 8 against 80,000 cusecs for the corresponding period last year. Fortunately, Tarbela did have greater flows on April 8 than its 19,700 cusecs of last year. Mangla, on the other hand, had lesser flows of 24,000 cusecs against 29,500 cusecs last year.
Irsa notes the maximum level in Tarbela at 1,408 feet on April 8 against 1,418 feet in 2024. The dam’s minimum storage was 1,389 feet on April 8, 2018, and maximum storage of 1,482 feet on April 8, 2016. This year, Tarbela’s dead level was declared at 1,402 feet against 1,386 feet in 2018. Such figures perhaps show increased sedimentation — a difference of 16 feet since 2018 — in the dam’s bed and, thus an early depletion. One shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that Tarbela remains the sole water supply source for Sindh and Balochistan.
“Dead level in Tarbela was revised at 1,402 feet [by Wapda] in 2023 due to increasing sedimentation load and ongoing tunnel uplift work. Secondly, the dam’s safety is to be ensured during its operation. But this has a direct impact on the reservoir’s outflows as well,” said Mohammad Ehsan Leghari, Sindh’s Irsa member.
With an inflow of 31,500 cusecs and outflow of 25,000 cusecs, Tarbela recorded a storage level of 1,411 feet on April 10 and Mangla 1,097 feet with an inflow of 34,974 cusecs and outflow of 17,000 cusecs, indicating considerable storage in the latter where the dead level was recorded at 1,050 feet on March 15. Mangla, built on Jhelum, is considered to be an early riser.
Sindh had an overall water shortage of 51pc at its three barrages till April 11 since, besides the three canals of Guddu, three major right bank canals of the Sukkur barrage remained closed. Sukkur had a 53pc shortage, and Kotri had a 35pc shortage till April 11.
Sukkur’s right bank, the North Western Canal (NWC), also provides Balochistan’s share of water. Similarly, Taunsa barrage’s (Guddu upstream) three canals, including Taunsa-Panjnad, are closed. Once the canals of these barrages start carrying water, the situation might become more serious in the overall system.
“The present water situation has worried us, considering the fact that Sukkur is reporting a 65pc shortage when we are providing water to the left bank canals alone, that too with a rotation plan, and right bank canals are to remain closed till April 30. What will happen when the right bank canals and those of Guddu are opened from May?” argues Aziz Soomro, in charge of the control room at Sukkur Barrage.
Sukkur’s Dadu, Rice, and NWC feed rice-growing areas, and according to barrage officials, the operation of these canals is a little harder because it demands maintaining a pond level of 198 feet to feed these channels. Currently, the pond level at Sukkur for the right bank remains invariably 192.4 feet or 192.5 feet. “To ensure the smooth operation of right bank canals and provide water for Kotri, we need a constant inflow of 60,000 cusecs at Sukkur for Kharif crops,” said an official.
Kotri Barrage reported a 28pc shortage till April 9. The travel distance between Sukkur and Kotri barrages is at least five days. With temperature shooting up in April-May, travel losses increase substantially. Flows from Sukkur reach Kotri after a considerable delay as the riverbed remains dry and the evaporation rate increases.
It is perhaps in this backdrop of shortage, according to DG Agriculture Munir Jumani, that Sindh lagged behind in its cotton cultivation target, and according to agriculture department figures, only 9.75pc of the sowing target of 630,000 hectares had been achieved till April 7 ,when compared with the corresponding period last year — 26.26pc against the target of 640,000 hectares.
Sindh Abadgar Board President Mahmood Nawaz Shah said cotton is the most badly hit crop due to the ongoing water shortage in April this year. Besides cotton, the wheat crop didn’t get its crucial last water cycle, and the same goes for mango trees that entered the fruit-setting stage.
“Growers who had sown cotton timely or those who will go for belated sowing are bound to see a negative effect of unavailability of required water cycles for crops,” he contended.
This year’s Federal Committee on Agriculture has a fixed cotton sowing target of 630,000 hectares. The rice cultivating target of 2024, ie 800,000 hectares, remained unchanged for 2025-26. The Punjab government, meanwhile, has planned to achieve a 1m acres early cotton sowing target by mid-April and has offered Rs5,000 seed subsidies to growers to boost declining cotton production.
“It’s an irony. The upper riparian region aims to achieve 1m acres sown by April, whilst we, being at the tail end of the river system, are unable to have even 10pc cotton sowing due to a shortage despite having an early cultivation trend historically,” says Sindh Abadgar Ittehad president Zubair Talpur. He claims the Punjab government has even allowed water-guzzling rice cultivation twice a year, indicating plenty of water availability in the province.
Temperature, meanwhile, has lately risen in Skardu, thus there was some improvement in inflows at Tarbela and in the Kabul River, which somewhat encouraging. However, one must bear in mind that water demand will increase substantially in May and June, too. In the meantime, Irsa will come up with its next assessment in May.
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 14th, 2025
